KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

59%

54%

47%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

HRESNO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.40u · HRES −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	91.8%	50.9%	98.0%	33.3%	59.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	91.8%	50.9%	98.8%	33.3%	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	91.8%	50.9%	98.8%	33.3%	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	91.8%	50.9%	98.8%	33.3%	59.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	94.2%	50.9%	98.8%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	94.2%	50.9%	98.8%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	94.2%	50.9%	98.8%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	94.2%	50.9%	98.8%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	94.2%	50.9%	98.8%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	94.2%	48.3%	99.6%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	94.2%	48.3%	99.6%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	94.2%	48.3%	99.6%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	91.2%	48.3%	99.6%	46.8%	82.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	91.2%	48.3%	99.6%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	99.6%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	99.6%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	99.6%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	98.7%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	98.7%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	98.7%	46.8%	82.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.7%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.7%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.7%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.7%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.7%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	98.6%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	96.5%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	73.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	98.8%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	58.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	98.8%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	58.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	98.8%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	98.8%	50.0%	99.8%	16.9%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	98.8%	53.5%	99.9%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	98.8%	53.5%	99.9%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	98.8%	53.5%	99.9%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	98.8%	53.5%	99.9%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	98.8%	53.5%	99.9%	47.3%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	73.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗