KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

59%

54%

47%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

HRESNO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.40u · HRES −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	25.2%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	20.3%	58.1%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	45.1%	23.5%	15.8%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	46.4%	63.6%	60.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	17.4%	78.9%	33.0%	—	46.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	64.5%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	56.4%	68.4%	44.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	11.0%	16.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	40.1%	75.5%	23.2%	—	43.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	70.4%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	73.8%	52.6%	27.7%	—	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	62.7%	68.6%	42.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	80.4%	69.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	51.9%	66.1%	71.3%	70.4%	51.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	61.8%	—	—	40.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	73.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗