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KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
83%
ICON
60%
EPS
33%
HRES
12%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u
VS
HRESNO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.30u · HRES −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:0086.2%28.5%76.6%31.4%32.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:0086.2%28.5%84.7%31.4%32.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:0086.2%28.5%84.7%31.4%32.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:0086.2%28.5%84.7%31.4%32.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:0086.2%28.5%84.7%31.4%32.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:0087.9%28.5%84.7%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0087.9%28.5%84.7%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0087.9%28.5%84.7%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0087.9%28.5%84.7%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:0087.9%32.7%87.4%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:0087.9%32.7%87.4%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:0087.9%32.7%87.4%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:0087.9%32.7%87.4%12.0%59.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:0083.4%32.9%87.4%12.0%59.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%70.2°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%70.3°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON60%67.0°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend46%65.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble33%63.6°F4.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%58.7°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗