KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

60%

33%

12%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

HRESNO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.30u · HRES −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	12.1%	44.6%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	31.7%	14.1%	8.7%	—	47.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	32.3%	49.3%	46.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	9.3%	66.3%	20.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	40.5%	53.2%	29.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	5.1%	8.2%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	25.1%	60.7%	12.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	57.8%	35.4%	15.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	42.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	44.5%	50.9%	25.9%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	64.8%	50.9%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	33.0%	47.1%	52.9%	51.9%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	42.0%	—	—	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	67.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	63.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	58.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗