KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

54%

52%

46%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.7¢Risks 61.65u

EPSNO 38.3¢Risks 38.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.35u · EPS −38.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	12.3%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	9.0%	38.0%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	25.7%	10.5%	6.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	26.0%	42.0%	39.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	59.1%	15.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	41.5%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	33.0%	45.2%	23.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	3.3%	5.5%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	18.9%	52.5%	8.7%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	45.7%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	49.1%	27.7%	10.5%	—	19.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	33.4%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	35.6%	41.8%	19.0%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	55.7%	41.5%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	24.7%	37.6%	43.2%	42.3%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	70.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	54%	67.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	66.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗