KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

72%

34%

18%

13%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.5¢Risks 49.45u

HRESNO 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.55u · HRES −50.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00	72.3%	36.7%	70.9%	45.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	72.3%	36.7%	77.2%	45.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	72.3%	36.7%	77.2%	45.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	72.3%	36.7%	77.2%	45.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	80.2%	36.7%	77.2%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	80.2%	36.7%	77.2%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	80.2%	36.7%	77.2%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	80.2%	36.7%	77.2%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	80.2%	36.7%	77.2%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	80.2%	17.4%	73.3%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	80.2%	17.4%	73.3%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	80.2%	17.4%	73.3%	25.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	77.0%	17.4%	73.3%	26.0%	45.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	77.0%	17.6%	73.2%	25.7%	45.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	71.4%	18.2%	74.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	71.4%	17.7%	74.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	71.4%	17.7%	74.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	71.4%	17.7%	70.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	71.4%	17.7%	70.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	71.4%	17.7%	70.4%	6.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	70.4%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	70.4%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	70.4%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	70.4%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	70.4%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	70.0%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	72.1%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	72.1%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	72.1%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	72.1%	17.7%	85.8%	13.1%	34.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	34%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	63.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	61.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗