KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

72%

34%

18%

13%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.5¢Risks 49.45u

HRESNO 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.55u · HRES −50.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	5.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	6.6%	31.8%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	20.4%	7.7%	4.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	20.4%	35.0%	32.3%	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	4.4%	51.5%	11.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	34.1%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	26.1%	37.5%	17.4%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	2.0%	3.6%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	13.8%	44.2%	5.8%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	37.4%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	40.5%	20.8%	7.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	25.7%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	27.4%	33.0%	13.4%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	46.2%	32.6%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	17.7%	28.7%	33.9%	33.0%	17.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	24.1%	—	—	10.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	34%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	63.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	61.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗