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KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
WN2
53%
ICON
19%
HRES
17%
EPS
11%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u
VS
EPSNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.25u · EPS −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS HRES: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:0071.0%10.7%65.8%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0071.0%10.7%65.8%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:0071.0%10.7%67.3%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:0071.0%10.7%67.3%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:0071.0%10.7%67.3%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:0071.0%10.7%67.3%21.1%40.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:0061.6%10.7%67.3%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:0061.6%10.7%67.3%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0061.6%10.7%67.3%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:0061.6%10.7%67.3%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:0061.6%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:0061.6%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0061.6%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:0061.6%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:0070.4%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:0070.4%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0070.4%11.1%53.4%17.4%19.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%71.4°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
NWS forecast53%69.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%68.9°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend46%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON19%62.3°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES17%62.3°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble11%62.9°F4.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗