KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

53%

19%

17%

11%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

EPSNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.25u · EPS −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	4.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	4.7%	26.0%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	15.8%	5.4%	3.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	15.6%	28.5%	26.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	2.9%	43.9%	8.1%	—	14.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	27.2%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	20.1%	30.1%	12.7%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	1.2%	2.2%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	9.7%	36.1%	3.8%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	29.6%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	32.2%	15.1%	4.5%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	19.0%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	20.3%	25.1%	9.0%	—	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	37.0%	24.6%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	12.1%	21.0%	25.5%	24.7%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	17.0%	—	—	6.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	71.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	62.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	62.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗