KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

55%

34%

13%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.15u · HRES −44.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	76.7%	36.7%	72.1%	33.2%	34.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	76.7%	36.7%	79.4%	33.2%	34.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	76.7%	36.7%	79.4%	33.2%	34.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	76.7%	36.7%	79.4%	33.2%	34.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	76.7%	36.7%	79.4%	33.2%	34.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	79.2%	36.7%	79.4%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	79.2%	36.7%	79.4%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	79.2%	36.7%	79.4%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	79.2%	36.7%	79.4%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	79.2%	25.2%	85.7%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	79.2%	25.2%	85.7%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	79.2%	25.2%	85.7%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	79.2%	25.2%	85.7%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	80.2%	25.5%	85.8%	14.1%	53.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	98.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	98.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	98.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	96.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	96.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	74.1%	33.7%	96.9%	23.4%	64.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	96.9%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	96.9%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	96.9%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	96.9%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	96.9%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	75.4%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	85.8%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	85.8%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	85.8%	33.7%	98.3%	13.4%	54.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	59.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗