KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

55%

34%

13%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.15u · HRES −44.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	5.0%	43.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	6.0%	61.8%	7.2%	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	28.5%	65.7%	15.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	67.0%	64.2%	53.0%	—	34.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	46.0%	54.8%	18.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	4.5%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	33.8%	63.9%	23.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	49.1%	66.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	62.1%	62.9%	38.8%	50.9%	47.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	55.4%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	60.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	59.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗