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KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
AIFS
85%
HRES
63%
EPS
38%
ICON
24%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u
VS
ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · ICON −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:0085.2%37.5%93.0%63.3%23.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0085.2%37.5%93.0%63.3%23.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0085.2%37.5%93.0%63.3%23.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0085.2%37.5%93.0%63.3%23.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 293%74.6°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single85%72.5°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES63%68.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%65.1°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON24%59.3°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗