KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

63%

38%

24%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · ICON −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	55.4%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	79.8%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	2.2%	43.9%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	52.8%	25.7%	34.9%	—	57.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	65.0%	37.1%	50.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	79.5%	41.7%	68.4%	—	46.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	82.1%	55.6%	75.2%	72.6%	64.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	26.3%	—	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	68.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	65.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	59.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗