KMKE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

62%

53%

52%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

AIFSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.45u · AIFS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	43.1%	88.6%	68.8%	74.8%	68.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	43.1%	88.6%	68.8%	74.8%	68.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	43.1%	88.6%	68.8%	74.8%	68.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	31.3%	88.6%	68.8%	74.8%	68.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	31.3%	88.6%	68.8%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	68.8%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	68.8%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	68.8%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	38.4%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	38.4%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	31.3%	89.0%	38.4%	74.8%	68.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	61.6%	89.0%	38.4%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	61.6%	89.0%	38.4%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	61.6%	89.0%	38.4%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	61.6%	89.0%	38.4%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	61.6%	89.0%	38.4%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	61.6%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	61.6%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	61.6%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	34.0%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	31.3%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	92.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	51.5%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	51.5%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	51.5%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	51.5%	88.7%	22.8%	56.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	51.5%	78.9%	52.6%	62.5%	81.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	67.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	66.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	61.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗