KMKE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

62%

53%

52%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

AIFSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.45u · AIFS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	78.5%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	11.0%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	15.2%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	52.0%	67.0%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	96.1%	31.1%	76.5%	—	69.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	69.6%	32.3%	86.5%	67.0%	52.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	12.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	67.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	66.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	61.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗