KMKE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

29%

18%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.0¢Risks 23.05u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 76.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.95u · WN2 −76.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	33.5%	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	9.6%	18.0%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	63.8%	2.9%	24.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	17.0%	2.7%	35.7%	15.2%	7.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.6%	—	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	67.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	66.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	61.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	61.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗