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KMKE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
20%
EPS
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
3%
HRES
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.5¢Risks 5.25u
VS
HRESNO 89.5¢Risks 44.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.75u · HRES −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:37+00:003.2%6.1%3.0%1.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:003.2%6.1%3.0%1.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:003.2%6.1%3.0%1.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:003.2%6.1%3.0%1.5%19.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:003.2%6.1%3.0%1.5%19.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON20%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend8%57.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%59.1°F6.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%59.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%55.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗