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KMKE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
20%
EPS
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
3%
HRES
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.5¢Risks 5.25u
VS
HRESNO 89.5¢Risks 44.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.75u · HRES −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.3%———0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.9%———7.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:004.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:008.1%———4.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.6%———4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0016.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.2%———6.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.3%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0019.7%———6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.7%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0057.9%———8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.7%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:007.5%———8.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0021.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0033.9%———11.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0019.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0038.6%———10.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0069.3%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0038.2%———6.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0025.8%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:007.3%—1.4%—14.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.9%—1.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.4%———9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.3%—3.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.5%—9.8%—2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%—1.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:003.2%—0.0%—4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.6%1.3%0.0%5.0%0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON20%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend8%57.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%59.1°F6.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%59.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%55.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗