KMSP / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

69%

65%

62%

16%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	77.9%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	77.9%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	74.2%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	74.2%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	74.2%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	60.4%	62.8%	74.2%	86.8%	11.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	74.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	74.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	74.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	74.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	64.9%	62.8%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	69.2%	62.8%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	69.2%	62.8%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	68.2%	90.7%	16.1%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	68.2%	88.3%	16.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	68.2%	88.3%	16.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	65.0%	88.3%	16.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	65.0%	88.3%	16.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	69.2%	61.5%	65.0%	88.3%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	82%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗