KMSP / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

69%

65%

62%

16%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	58.7%	—	—	67.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	0.4%	2.5%	—	61.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	99.5%	98.9%	—	60.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	96.7%	52.3%	—	77.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	97.5%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	71.9%	95.9%	99.6%	—	62.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	61.5%	97.2%	98.5%	—	63.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	15.2%	99.4%	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	63.7%	99.7%	29.9%	—	73.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	75.0%	100.0%	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	70.3%	84.5%	94.2%	—	69.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	49.0%	97.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	39.4%	99.0%	51.9%	—	76.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	20.4%	98.0%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	19.7%	97.8%	88.7%	—	86.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	29.8%	99.9%	—	—	73.8%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	54.4%	98.6%	38.2%	—	56.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	34.6%	100.0%	0.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	43.0%	96.9%	52.3%	6.1%	50.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	38.1%	98.1%	52.4%	—	51.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	19.1%	92.5%	10.0%	0.8%	59.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	30.2%	96.8%	20.9%	—	61.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	25.1%	99.5%	47.3%	1.2%	73.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	39.0%	83.6%	31.2%	—	55.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	24.5%	29.3%	33.1%	1.0%	47.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	22.4%	48.5%	90.1%	—	67.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.7%	91.7%	91.1%	11.0%	40.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	50.0%	97.9%	83.0%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	82%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗