KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

78%

66%

55%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.9¢Risks 71.85u

ICONNO 28.1¢Risks 28.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.15u · ICON −28.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	79.2%	89.5%	62.4%	55.3%	23.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	62.4%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	62.4%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	62.4%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	62.4%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	84.1%	89.5%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	83.6%	89.5%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	83.6%	89.5%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	83.6%	89.2%	65.6%	78.1%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	81%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	55%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗