KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

78%

66%

55%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.9¢Risks 71.85u

ICONNO 28.1¢Risks 28.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.15u · ICON −28.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	68.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	33.6%	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	98.5%	76.5%	—	70.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	9.3%	98.0%	99.7%	—	83.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	35.8%	89.3%	78.4%	—	82.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	93.6%	86.9%	—	75.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	60.5%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	47.5%	35.3%	87.1%	—	52.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	36.6%	80.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	27.7%	89.1%	45.6%	—	55.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	61.5%	94.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	58.2%	98.9%	65.3%	—	53.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	28.4%	99.1%	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	33.9%	94.9%	60.6%	—	31.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	29.9%	95.8%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	26.8%	86.1%	43.9%	—	31.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	23.6%	72.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	30.1%	96.7%	75.3%	—	40.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	43.3%	97.1%	22.3%	—	54.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	61.5%	99.9%	82.5%	17.5%	53.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	54.8%	99.3%	76.6%	—	48.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	88.8%	99.5%	85.6%	50.0%	64.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	80.9%	99.4%	89.1%	—	59.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	80.9%	99.6%	84.3%	26.2%	46.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	75.8%	99.6%	68.8%	—	45.8%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	70.7%	98.9%	72.0%	18.2%	58.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	75.2%	99.2%	67.5%	—	51.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	77.4%	99.6%	75.0%	33.1%	46.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	86.9%	98.3%	81.9%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	81%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	55%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗