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KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
36%
HRES
21%
WN2
17%
ICON
6%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u
VS
ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.5% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:0009-12 03:1709-12 05:3309-12 07:03
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:0035.9%99.5%17.2%21.4%6.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%84.3°F3.0°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast57%77.0°F2.8°F2026-09-12 02:00Pending
National Blend44%76.0°F3.4°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single36%75.0°F4.2°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES21%73.5°F3.8°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%73.3°F3.4°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
ICON6%71.1°F3.5°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗