KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

36%

21%

17%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	88.3%	—	—	54.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	94.4%	—	—	79.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	86.5%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	97.6%	16.2%	—	66.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	24.9%	29.7%	—	43.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	2.3%	87.5%	37.2%	—	43.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	85.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	10.4%	85.5%	33.0%	—	42.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	87.1%	51.7%	45.0%	—	36.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	15.7%	44.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	33.8%	49.1%	42.2%	—	35.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	14.5%	64.9%	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	14.4%	74.9%	49.1%	—	23.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	22.4%	75.4%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	33.9%	80.3%	24.0%	—	26.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	22.6%	70.9%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.4%	69.7%	38.8%	—	16.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	16.9%	76.3%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	13.1%	70.8%	27.3%	6.6%	13.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	14.1%	85.9%	9.2%	—	11.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	16.0%	66.9%	32.0%	5.7%	16.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.2%	54.8%	24.4%	—	14.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	21.7%	52.5%	27.6%	71.3%	19.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	10.3%	34.9%	21.9%	—	10.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.5%	36.8%	11.3%	68.1%	6.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	17.3%	36.3%	8.1%	—	5.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	12.2%	37.2%	17.2%	55.8%	13.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	8.6%	50.0%	9.9%	—	10.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.9%	56.3%	5.2%	2.0%	1.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.9%	33.9%	9.2%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	77.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	75.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	73.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗