KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 12 · 14:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

87%

74%

67%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

WN2NO 16.5¢Risks 16.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.55u · WN2 −16.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	61.4%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	61.4%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	61.4%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	51.0%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	51.0%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	69.0%	98.6%	51.0%	75.8%	60.3%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	51.0%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	51.0%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	51.0%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	51.0%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	51.0%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	47.9%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	47.9%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	74.9%	98.6%	47.9%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	70.0%	98.6%	47.9%	64.6%	37.3%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	70.1%	98.6%	47.9%	64.6%	37.4%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	38.8%	28.4%	11.0%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	38.8%	28.4%	11.0%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	38.8%	28.4%	63.2%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	53.1%	28.4%	63.2%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	53.1%	28.4%	63.2%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	74.3%	99.6%	53.1%	28.4%	63.2%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	79.6%	99.6%	53.1%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	79.6%	99.6%	53.1%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	79.6%	99.6%	53.1%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	79.6%	99.6%	53.1%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	79.6%	99.6%	53.1%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	79.6%	99.7%	59.7%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	79.6%	99.7%	59.7%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	79.6%	99.7%	59.7%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	76.9%	99.7%	59.7%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	77.0%	99.7%	59.8%	62.1%	63.2%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	56.5%	43.0%	7.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	56.5%	43.0%	7.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	56.5%	43.0%	2.0%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	52.2%	43.0%	2.0%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	52.2%	43.0%	2.0%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	77.0%	99.5%	52.2%	43.0%	2.0%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	81.3%	99.5%	52.2%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	81.3%	99.5%	52.2%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	81.3%	99.5%	52.2%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	81.3%	99.5%	52.2%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	81.3%	99.5%	52.2%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	81.3%	99.9%	59.0%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	81.3%	99.9%	59.0%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	81.3%	99.9%	59.0%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	80.6%	99.9%	59.0%	71.8%	2.0%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	80.7%	99.9%	59.1%	71.8%	2.2%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	57.9%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	57.9%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	57.9%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	62.4%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	62.4%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	83.7%	99.9%	62.4%	82.6%	31.5%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	87.6%	99.9%	62.4%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	87.6%	99.9%	62.4%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	87.6%	99.9%	62.4%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	87.6%	99.9%	62.4%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	87.6%	99.9%	62.4%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	87.6%	99.8%	67.1%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	87.6%	99.8%	67.1%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	87.6%	99.8%	67.1%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	87.1%	99.8%	67.1%	96.8%	73.2%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	87.2%	99.8%	67.1%	91.7%	74.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.3°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	74.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	74%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	68.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗