KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 12 · 14:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

87%

74%

67%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

WN2NO 16.5¢Risks 16.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.55u · WN2 −16.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	92.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	87.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	—	—	—	79.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	10.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	68.3%	38.9%	—	61.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	53.6%	95.8%	61.6%	—	69.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	27.0%	97.1%	—	71.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	19.5%	42.1%	—	54.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	45.0%	75.5%	72.8%	—	67.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	25.3%	47.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	27.7%	82.2%	97.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	58.9%	95.7%	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	5.5%	71.0%	62.7%	—	46.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	18.4%	78.3%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	59.6%	20.3%	59.6%	—	30.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	9.2%	43.0%	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	6.1%	17.6%	19.7%	62.2%	19.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	3.3%	22.8%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	3.5%	72.7%	18.3%	0.3%	40.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	15.4%	60.0%	14.1%	—	42.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	36.3%	44.2%	37.4%	—	69.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	80.9%	79.2%	66.4%	—	72.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	87.6%	84.9%	75.4%	—	88.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	79.1%	92.8%	77.2%	—	87.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	70.5%	97.8%	69.3%	51.3%	78.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	80.9%	96.3%	71.2%	—	81.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	83.7%	97.3%	81.8%	66.9%	87.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	84.7%	97.8%	74.0%	—	74.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	84.8%	99.3%	76.2%	72.4%	78.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	80.8%	95.9%	77.2%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.3°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	74.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	74%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	68.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗