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KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
96%
HRES
95%
AIFS
72%
ICON
40%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u
VS
ICONNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · ICON −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:0009-14 04:1109-14 05:4109-14 07:11
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:0071.9%100.0%95.4%95.3%40.0%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:0071.9%100.0%95.4%95.3%40.0%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:0071.9%100.0%95.7%95.3%40.0%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:0071.9%100.0%95.7%95.3%40.0%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:0071.9%100.0%95.7%95.3%40.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%74.1°F2.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 296%69.3°F3.4°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
IFS HRES95%69.8°F3.8°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
National Blend89%69.0°F4.5°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single72%65.9°F4.1°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
NWS forecast57%64.0°F2.8°F2026-09-14 03:00Pending
ICON40%62.6°F3.5°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗