KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

95%

72%

40%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

ICONNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · ICON −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	87.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	86.8%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	20.9%	11.2%	—	91.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	18.9%	60.8%	—	86.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	42.4%	84.5%	99.9%	—	98.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	89.6%	38.2%	99.9%	—	98.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	99.2%	—	—	78.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	94.2%	55.0%	98.9%	—	97.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	46.6%	100.0%	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	38.8%	68.6%	98.8%	—	92.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	92.8%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	82.8%	60.9%	94.7%	89.8%	91.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	73.2%	69.1%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	72.1%	80.3%	90.2%	—	83.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	38.2%	86.5%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	34.0%	46.9%	82.4%	—	73.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	18.3%	41.6%	—	—	85.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	26.4%	74.5%	88.1%	—	87.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	16.1%	73.3%	22.3%	—	84.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	40.8%	54.6%	81.7%	71.0%	84.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	54.8%	65.3%	41.6%	—	88.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	56.2%	99.5%	94.1%	64.6%	89.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	63.9%	89.7%	95.7%	—	91.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	69.3%	51.3%	97.8%	71.6%	92.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	70.0%	70.0%	95.3%	—	92.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	80.9%	86.2%	94.1%	73.2%	94.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	66.2%	54.5%	94.8%	—	86.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	78.6%	69.7%	87.5%	76.2%	84.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	51.6%	30.9%	95.5%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.1°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	89%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	64.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
ICON	40%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗