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KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
87%
WN2
86%
AIFS
54%
ICON
21%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u
VS
ICONNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.70u · ICON −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00IFS HRES: 87.3% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:0009-13 17:3909-13 22:5509-14 03:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:0060.5%100.0%82.8%86.2%20.7%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:0060.5%100.0%82.8%86.2%20.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:0060.5%100.0%82.8%86.2%20.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:0061.4%100.0%82.8%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:0061.4%100.0%82.8%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:0061.4%100.0%82.8%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:0061.4%100.0%82.8%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:0061.4%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:0061.4%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:0061.4%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:0061.4%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:0053.8%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:0053.8%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:0053.8%99.9%86.3%87.3%20.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%74.1°F2.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES87%69.8°F3.8°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%69.2°F3.4°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
National Blend71%67.9°F4.4°F2026-09-13 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-09-13 16:00Pending
AIFS Single54%65.9°F4.1°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
ICON21%62.6°F3.5°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 13 · 17:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗