KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

87%

86%

54%

21%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

ICONNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.70u · ICON −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	93.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	79.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	78.2%	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	12.2%	5.8%	—	85.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	10.6%	46.4%	—	77.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	28.3%	73.6%	99.5%	—	95.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	80.5%	24.2%	99.7%	—	96.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	64.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	87.5%	38.5%	97.0%	—	94.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	30.3%	100.0%	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	23.4%	51.7%	96.4%	—	83.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	84.5%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	68.6%	42.7%	87.6%	79.1%	81.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	55.7%	50.9%	—	—	71.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	53.9%	64.3%	79.0%	—	68.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	21.1%	72.6%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	17.6%	27.6%	66.0%	—	54.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	7.6%	22.8%	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	11.9%	54.4%	73.6%	—	72.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	6.0%	52.2%	9.2%	—	67.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	20.7%	32.0%	62.6%	48.8%	65.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	31.4%	41.6%	20.8%	—	72.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	32.0%	97.4%	82.6%	40.1%	73.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	38.5%	73.1%	85.7%	—	77.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	43.3%	26.2%	91.1%	46.0%	77.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	43.1%	43.1%	83.6%	—	77.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	55.8%	64.2%	79.8%	45.7%	81.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	36.6%	26.0%	80.8%	—	63.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	50.0%	39.1%	63.9%	46.8%	59.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	21.6%	9.2%	80.8%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.1°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	69.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 13 · 17:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗