KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

82%

74%

74%

56%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

HRESNO 23.4¢Risks 23.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.35u · HRES −23.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	93.1%	80.2%	79.4%	52.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	93.1%	80.2%	79.4%	52.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	93.1%	80.2%	79.4%	52.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	76.6%	80.2%	79.4%	52.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	76.6%	80.3%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	76.6%	79.8%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	79.5%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	75.7%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	75.7%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	75.7%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	76.6%	79.9%	75.7%	52.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	75.7%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	75.7%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	75.7%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	75.7%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	75.7%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	93.4%	79.9%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	93.4%	79.9%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	63.2%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	62.4%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	62.4%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	93.4%	80.7%	62.4%	31.8%	68.1%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	62.4%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	62.4%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	62.4%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	62.4%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	62.4%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	61.5%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	61.5%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	97.0%	80.7%	61.5%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	95.6%	80.7%	61.5%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	95.7%	80.9%	62.3%	51.2%	57.1%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	73.2%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	73.2%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	73.2%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	71.5%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	71.5%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	72.3%	84.7%	71.5%	55.5%	79.2%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	66.5%	84.7%	71.5%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	66.5%	84.7%	71.5%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	66.5%	84.7%	71.5%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	66.5%	84.7%	71.5%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	66.5%	84.7%	71.5%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	66.5%	92.0%	70.9%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	66.5%	92.0%	70.9%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	66.5%	92.0%	70.9%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	66.5%	92.0%	70.9%	71.6%	66.0%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	66.5%	91.9%	70.9%	66.3%	66.0%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	67.3%	98.1%	72.6%	69.3%	81.8%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	67.3%	98.1%	72.6%	69.3%	81.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	67.3%	98.1%	72.6%	69.3%	81.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	73.0%	98.1%	72.6%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	73.0%	98.1%	72.6%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	73.0%	98.1%	72.6%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	73.0%	98.1%	72.6%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	73.0%	97.4%	74.4%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	73.0%	97.4%	74.4%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	73.0%	97.4%	74.4%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	73.0%	97.4%	74.4%	55.7%	81.8%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	74.5%	97.4%	74.4%	55.9%	81.8%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	74.5%	97.4%	74.4%	55.9%	81.8%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	74.5%	97.4%	74.4%	55.9%	81.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.2°F	2.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	71.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	71.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗