KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

82%

74%

74%

56%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

HRESNO 23.4¢Risks 23.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.35u · HRES −23.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	5.9%	—	—	47.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	52.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	80.1%	40.3%	—	36.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	32.3%	47.1%	59.4%	—	38.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	35.8%	60.6%	38.7%	—	30.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	93.3%	95.7%	57.1%	—	45.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	38.5%	46.7%	27.2%	54.2%	32.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	56.0%	67.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	87.4%	82.8%	48.2%	—	55.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	48.2%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	71.8%	84.5%	50.9%	—	55.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	90.8%	76.2%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	61.5%	52.9%	73.7%	—	62.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	67.4%	55.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	51.0%	71.5%	—	40.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	74.7%	57.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	84.5%	81.0%	82.4%	—	56.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	85.2%	81.7%	50.0%	—	43.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	85.3%	12.1%	74.0%	16.0%	44.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	84.8%	81.7%	79.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	85.6%	91.5%	84.9%	16.6%	50.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	89.7%	81.8%	83.4%	—	47.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	90.5%	80.9%	88.7%	18.2%	48.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	78.9%	93.8%	86.1%	—	54.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	72.0%	94.5%	89.8%	40.0%	45.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	61.9%	95.9%	86.4%	—	47.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	43.7%	95.9%	82.9%	45.3%	46.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	75.9%	87.7%	84.0%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.2°F	2.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	71.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	71.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗