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KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 08 · 10:24 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
EPS
76%
WN2
56%
HRES
46%
ICON
26%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u
VS
ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.80u · ICON −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.7% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.3% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.3% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.3% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.3% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.3% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00IFS HRES: 46.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00IFS HRES: 46.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00IFS HRES: 46.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00IFS HRES: 46.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00IFS HRES: 46.1% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:0009-08 07:2309-08 08:5409-08 10:24
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:0090.4%75.0%56.3%46.1%26.0%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:0090.4%75.0%56.3%46.1%26.0%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:0090.4%75.0%56.3%46.1%26.0%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:0090.4%75.0%56.3%46.1%26.0%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:0090.4%75.7%56.3%46.1%26.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble76%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 256%——Not retainedPending
National Blend54%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES46%——Not retainedPending
ICON26%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE70
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗