KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 08 · 10:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

76%

56%

46%

26%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.80u · ICON −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	45.3%	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	74.8%	33.6%	—	29.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	26.0%	39.9%	52.2%	—	31.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	28.9%	53.0%	31.6%	—	24.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	90.3%	93.6%	49.2%	—	37.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	30.8%	38.5%	20.7%	45.8%	25.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	47.4%	59.3%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	82.2%	76.6%	39.6%	—	46.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	39.3%	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	63.6%	78.4%	41.8%	—	46.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	86.3%	68.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	51.9%	43.2%	65.2%	—	52.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	58.0%	45.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	39.8%	40.8%	62.2%	—	31.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	65.5%	46.8%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	77.0%	72.7%	74.5%	—	45.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	77.7%	73.3%	38.9%	—	32.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	77.6%	7.2%	63.7%	10.0%	33.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	76.6%	72.7%	69.6%	—	38.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	77.3%	85.6%	76.4%	10.0%	37.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	82.6%	72.0%	74.1%	—	34.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	83.5%	70.5%	80.9%	10.7%	35.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	67.5%	88.2%	76.8%	—	40.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	58.6%	89.2%	81.8%	26.8%	31.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	47.0%	91.4%	76.4%	—	32.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	29.0%	91.1%	71.0%	30.3%	31.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	61.4%	77.2%	71.9%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE70
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗