KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

84%

78%

71%

67%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.00u · HRES −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T15:12:03+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	59.7%	31.0%	84.8%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	59.7%	31.0%	84.8%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	59.7%	31.0%	67.3%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	67.3%	31.0%	67.3%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	67.3%	31.0%	67.3%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	56.7%	88.9%	67.3%	31.0%	67.3%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	67.3%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	67.3%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	67.3%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	67.3%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	67.3%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	66.6%	88.9%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	77.0%	64.1%	67.3%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	77.0%	64.1%	58.3%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	74.9%	64.1%	58.3%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	74.9%	64.1%	58.3%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	65.9%	86.3%	74.9%	64.1%	58.3%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	81.0%	86.3%	74.9%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	81.0%	86.3%	74.9%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	81.0%	86.3%	74.9%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	81.0%	86.3%	74.9%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	81.0%	86.3%	74.9%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	81.0%	93.7%	83.4%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	81.0%	93.7%	83.4%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	81.0%	93.7%	83.4%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	77.6%	93.7%	83.4%	69.0%	58.3%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	77.6%	94.7%	83.4%	69.0%	58.2%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	89.2%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	89.2%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	89.2%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	80.8%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	80.8%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	83.1%	94.5%	80.8%	61.4%	56.2%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	67.1%	94.5%	80.8%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	67.1%	94.5%	80.8%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	67.1%	94.5%	80.8%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	67.1%	94.5%	80.8%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	67.1%	94.5%	80.8%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	67.1%	95.4%	74.0%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	67.1%	95.4%	74.0%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	67.1%	95.4%	74.0%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	76.4%	95.4%	74.0%	29.8%	85.8%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	76.4%	95.4%	74.0%	34.3%	85.7%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	70.9%	97.0%	73.2%	74.2%	85.7%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	70.9%	97.0%	73.2%	74.2%	85.7%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	70.9%	97.0%	73.2%	74.2%	85.7%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	70.9%	97.0%	73.2%	74.2%	85.7%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	70.9%	97.0%	73.2%	74.2%	85.7%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	69.7%	97.0%	73.2%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	69.7%	97.0%	73.2%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	69.7%	97.0%	73.2%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	69.7%	97.0%	73.2%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	69.7%	97.0%	73.2%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	69.7%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	69.7%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	69.7%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	62.3%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	70.9%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	75.4%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	75.4%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	62.4%	99.4%	75.4%	56.1%	84.2%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	69.0%	99.4%	75.4%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	69.0%	99.4%	75.4%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	69.0%	99.4%	75.4%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	69.0%	99.4%	75.4%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	69.0%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	69.0%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	69.0%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	69.0%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	77.8%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	77.8%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	77.8%	99.0%	70.9%	67.0%	84.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.3°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	69.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	69.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.8°F	5.6°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗