KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

84%

78%

71%

67%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.00u · HRES −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	79.8%	—	—	65.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	67.0%	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	90.7%	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	4.5%	78.1%	11.2%	—	43.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	75.7%	83.9%	55.1%	—	38.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	49.2%	75.5%	61.3%	12.5%	48.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	54.7%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	42.1%	42.1%	64.8%	—	52.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	39.3%	21.9%	59.9%	—	55.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	30.3%	9.5%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	79.2%	72.4%	62.9%	—	46.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	70.6%	72.1%	—	—	41.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	80.4%	61.8%	85.6%	—	39.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	89.1%	73.9%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	4.2%	67.0%	85.8%	—	46.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	95.6%	60.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	87.2%	56.1%	38.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	86.2%	88.4%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	93.4%	96.7%	95.5%	—	65.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	93.3%	81.0%	7.5%	—	64.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	97.5%	94.3%	93.5%	80.1%	68.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	96.9%	98.1%	96.0%	—	80.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	95.4%	99.0%	95.1%	87.0%	83.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	92.3%	99.8%	97.2%	—	85.7%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	93.9%	99.9%	94.7%	91.1%	89.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	97.0%	99.9%	94.6%	—	93.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	99.0%	100.0%	98.8%	98.1%	94.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	98.9%	99.9%	98.6%	—	89.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	99.1%	99.9%	98.5%	97.6%	93.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	99.7%	99.9%	99.2%	—	97.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.3°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	69.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	69.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.8°F	5.6°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗