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KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
69%
AIFS
68%
HRES
55%
ICON
39%
WN2
38%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.75u
VS
WN2NO 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.25u · WN2 −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00AIFS Single: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.2% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.7% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00IFS HRES: 47.1% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 53.8% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:0009-15 03:3009-15 09:3109-15 15:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:0058.4%58.2%34.5%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:0058.4%58.2%34.5%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:0058.4%58.2%34.5%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:0058.4%58.2%38.8%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:0058.4%58.2%38.8%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:0058.4%58.2%38.8%47.1%63.2%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:0062.4%58.2%38.8%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:0062.4%58.2%38.8%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:0062.4%58.2%38.8%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:0062.4%58.2%38.8%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:0062.4%67.7%38.4%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:0062.4%67.7%38.4%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:0062.4%67.7%38.4%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:0062.4%67.7%38.4%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:0067.7%67.7%38.4%55.3%38.9%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:0067.7%67.7%38.4%53.8%38.9%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:0067.7%69.1%38.4%55.3%38.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble69%73.8°F2.6°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single68%74.4°F4.1°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
National Blend64%73.9°F3.9°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%73.0°F3.1°F2026-09-15 03:00Pending
IFS HRES55%73.0°F3.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
ICON39%71.5°F3.6°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 238%71.5°F3.4°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗