KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

68%

55%

39%

38%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.75u

WN2NO 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.25u · WN2 −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	51.9%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	35.4%	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	68.2%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.5%	45.8%	1.8%	—	14.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	41.3%	52.9%	21.5%	—	11.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	16.4%	39.4%	25.1%	1.8%	16.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	11.5%	11.5%	26.8%	—	17.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	9.3%	3.4%	21.3%	—	17.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.6%	0.9%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	38.8%	30.7%	22.1%	—	11.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	38.2%	19.6%	46.3%	—	7.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	51.9%	29.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.2%	21.8%	44.2%	—	9.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	67.4%	16.4%	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	43.9%	12.8%	5.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	40.6%	44.7%	—	—	12.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	55.5%	67.9%	62.9%	—	16.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	53.4%	29.6%	0.2%	—	14.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	69.0%	54.6%	52.3%	27.0%	16.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	64.1%	71.7%	59.5%	—	26.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	55.0%	77.3%	53.7%	33.1%	27.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	42.3%	89.7%	61.5%	—	29.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	44.6%	93.0%	47.3%	36.8%	33.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	55.6%	91.3%	44.4%	—	40.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	69.5%	93.7%	66.9%	60.1%	40.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	64.8%	87.2%	61.9%	—	26.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	65.4%	84.8%	57.9%	50.0%	31.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	73.3%	81.9%	63.0%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	73.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	73.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	73.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	71.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗