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KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
58%
HRES
32%
WN2
28%
EPS
25%
ICON
14%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 36.0¢Risks 36.00u
VS
ICONNO 64.0¢Risks 64.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.00u · ICON −64.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 49.0% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00AIFS Single: 49.0% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00AIFS Single: 49.0% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00AIFS Single: 49.0% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00AIFS Single: 49.0% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.3% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 34.5% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 31.7% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:0009-15 16:1909-15 23:5009-16 07:22
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:0049.0%39.4%18.8%34.5%20.0%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:0049.0%39.4%19.6%34.5%20.0%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:0049.0%39.4%19.6%34.5%20.0%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:0049.0%39.4%19.6%34.5%20.0%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:0049.0%39.4%19.6%34.5%20.0%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:0052.9%39.4%19.6%34.5%14.3%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:0052.9%39.4%19.6%34.5%14.3%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:0052.9%39.4%19.6%34.5%14.3%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:0052.9%39.4%19.6%34.5%14.3%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:0052.9%39.4%19.6%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:0052.9%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:0052.9%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:0052.9%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:0057.7%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:0057.7%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:0057.7%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:0057.7%25.3%22.2%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:0057.7%25.3%27.8%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:0057.7%25.3%27.8%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:0057.7%25.3%27.8%31.7%14.3%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:0057.7%25.3%27.8%31.7%14.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend77%76.0°F2.0°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%75.3°F4.1°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
NWS forecast57%75.0°F2.8°F2026-09-16 02:00Pending
IFS HRES32%72.7°F3.8°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%72.5°F3.4°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%72.7°F2.7°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
ICON14%70.7°F3.6°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗