KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

32%

28%

25%

14%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.0¢Risks 36.00u

ICONNO 64.0¢Risks 64.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.00u · ICON −64.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	24.1%	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	55.4%	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	32.3%	0.7%	—	7.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.9%	38.5%	12.4%	—	5.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	8.7%	25.8%	14.6%	0.6%	8.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	10.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	5.5%	5.5%	15.4%	—	9.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	4.1%	1.2%	11.2%	—	9.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	2.2%	0.2%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	23.4%	17.2%	11.3%	—	5.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	15.0%	16.1%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	22.3%	9.4%	28.9%	—	2.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	33.5%	15.4%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	10.2%	26.3%	—	3.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	48.0%	7.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	25.1%	4.9%	1.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	22.0%	25.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	34.1%	46.7%	41.3%	—	6.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	31.5%	13.5%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	46.5%	32.0%	30.0%	11.6%	5.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	40.5%	48.8%	35.9%	—	10.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	30.9%	55.0%	29.8%	14.4%	11.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	20.0%	73.1%	36.1%	—	11.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	21.0%	79.0%	23.0%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	28.8%	74.7%	20.1%	—	17.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	41.4%	78.8%	38.6%	31.8%	16.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	35.2%	64.8%	32.5%	—	8.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	34.6%	59.4%	27.6%	21.4%	10.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	41.8%	53.3%	30.9%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	76.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	72.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	72.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗