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KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 10 · 10:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
63%
AIFS
52%
WN2
42%
HRES
37%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u
VS
HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.40u · HRES −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:0009-10 07:4009-10 09:1109-10 10:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:0051.5%62.6%42.2%36.6%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:0051.5%62.6%42.2%36.6%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:0051.5%62.6%42.2%36.6%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:0051.5%62.6%42.2%36.6%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:0051.5%62.6%42.2%36.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble63%72.5°F3.1°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
National Blend55%72.4°F7.8°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single52%71.7°F5.5°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%70.5°F5.0°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
IFS HRES37%69.4°F6.1°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗