KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 10 · 10:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

52%

42%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.40u · HRES −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.8%	—	—	37.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	21.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	23.1%	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	20.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	42.3%	88.1%	5.8%	56.3%	34.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	51.5%	0.2%	68.3%	—	38.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	38.0%	62.0%	65.6%	—	45.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	54.8%	53.2%	28.8%	—	49.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	25.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	48.3%	53.3%	82.7%	—	38.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	50.0%	7.2%	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	93.8%	75.9%	—	57.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	7.1%	89.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	—	67.0%	—	45.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	2.3%	41.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	64.3%	98.6%	57.7%	—	63.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	75.1%	92.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	75.7%	98.2%	74.9%	0.1%	58.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	92.8%	70.2%	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	91.0%	97.2%	89.6%	0.1%	68.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	84.6%	92.1%	2.6%	—	79.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	82.5%	98.8%	91.0%	—	85.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	89.2%	99.7%	88.6%	—	89.2%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	87.0%	96.0%	94.8%	77.3%	88.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	85.7%	99.9%	93.2%	—	82.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	85.9%	99.7%	93.5%	74.9%	73.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	87.5%	84.5%	87.5%	—	71.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	70.7%	79.8%	83.7%	54.3%	76.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	77.6%	86.4%	76.4%	—	70.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	60.9%	92.3%	45.3%	53.2%	34.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	35.5%	67.6%	29.5%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.4°F	7.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	71.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	69.4°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗