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KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
17%
EPS
14%
AIFS
14%
WN2
5%
ICON
4%
Consensus
15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 10.5¢Risks 5.23u
VS
ICONNO 89.5¢Risks 44.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.77u · ICON −44.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 23.7% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00IFS HRES: 15.5% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.5% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 15.5% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00IFS HRES: 15.5% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0009-16 15:4009-16 21:4109-17 02:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:0022.6%12.4%10.2%23.7%5.1%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:0022.6%12.4%10.2%22.3%4.0%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:0022.6%12.4%8.7%22.3%4.0%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:0022.6%12.4%8.7%22.3%4.0%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:0022.6%12.4%8.7%22.3%4.0%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:0022.6%12.4%8.7%22.3%4.0%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:0014.8%12.4%8.7%15.5%4.0%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:0014.8%12.4%8.7%15.5%4.0%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:0014.8%12.4%8.7%15.5%4.0%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:0014.8%12.4%8.7%15.5%4.0%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:0014.8%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:0014.8%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:0014.8%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:0014.3%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:0014.3%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0014.3%14.4%5.2%16.9%4.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%80.0°F3.1°F2026-09-16 14:00Pending
National Blend41%79.0°F2.2°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES17%75.9°F3.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%76.3°F3.0°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%75.1°F4.1°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%74.0°F3.4°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
ICON4%73.3°F3.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗