KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

14%

14%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.5¢Risks 5.23u

ICONNO 89.5¢Risks 44.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.77u · ICON −44.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	95.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	2.0%	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	40.9%	0.1%	10.5%	3.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.6%	0.0%	16.1%	—	3.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.3%	11.0%	12.9%	—	5.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	6.9%	6.4%	1.5%	—	5.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.3%	5.6%	23.2%	—	2.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.3%	0.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	41.3%	14.6%	—	5.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	29.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	7.9%	—	2.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	1.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.6%	59.6%	4.0%	—	5.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.2%	27.4%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.6%	51.0%	8.2%	0.0%	3.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	25.3%	5.5%	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	19.8%	39.2%	17.6%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.7%	19.8%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.1%	46.5%	16.0%	—	10.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	11.9%	64.1%	11.4%	—	11.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.5%	22.7%	19.1%	4.0%	10.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.4%	70.9%	13.5%	—	4.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.3%	54.0%	12.0%	2.2%	2.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.0%	3.7%	5.0%	—	1.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	1.9%	2.7%	0.3%	1.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	2.7%	1.0%	—	0.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	4.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	75.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	76.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	73.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗