KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 16 · 17:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.7¢Risks 0.93u

ICONNO 96.3¢Risks 24.07u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.07u · ICON −24.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	4.6%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	4.6%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	4.6%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	4.6%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	4.6%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	5.3%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	5.3%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	5.3%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	5.3%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	5.3%	11.5%	8.0%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	10.0%	0.4%	2.1%	2.1%	16.6%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	10.0%	0.4%	2.1%	5.4%	16.5%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	2.1%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	2.1%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	2.1%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	1.8%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	1.8%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	10.0%	0.6%	1.8%	2.1%	16.5%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	5.7%	0.8%	2.6%	4.9%	5.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	5.7%	0.8%	2.6%	4.9%	5.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	5.7%	0.8%	2.6%	4.9%	5.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	3.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.5%	4.2%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	3.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.5%	4.2%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	3.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.5%	4.2%
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	1.6%	6.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	1.6%	5.4%	0.5%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	1.2%	5.4%	0.5%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	1.2%	5.4%	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	21%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	78.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	75.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	74.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 19:46 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗