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KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 16 · 17:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
7%
HRES
5%
EPS
2%
WN2
1%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.7¢Risks 0.93u
VS
ICONNO 96.3¢Risks 24.07u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.07u · ICON −24.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.9% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.7% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.3% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.8% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.3% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.7% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.2% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.7% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.8% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:0009-02 12:0009-10 06:0009-17 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:001.1%————17.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:003.8%————13.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:000.1%————14.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:001.7%—————
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:000.5%————8.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————7.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:0059.0%————9.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:003.4%————9.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:003.6%————3.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:009.2%—————
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:005.6%————1.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:000.5%————1.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:005.3%—88.9%——2.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————2.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:003.9%—82.7%———
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:0012.5%—0.6%——4.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%—6.6%———
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.5%—0.6%——1.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.5%—0.4%——1.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:000.4%—18.9%———
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.7%22.4%0.0%3.8%1.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%2.4%0.0%6.2%—1.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.0%———
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:001.3%0.8%3.6%4.4%—1.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:002.4%—0.6%———
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:001.2%1.9%1.7%0.3%—1.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:001.8%—0.1%——0.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.9%1.3%8.7%—0.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%0.0%——0.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%—19.0%4.3%—1.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%11.2%——0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%——1.8%—0.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.2%——0.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.2%1.0%31.3%0.6%—1.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%8.8%——0.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%1.6%22.7%1.5%0.0%0.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%7.2%0.8%——0.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%4.7%13.7%4.0%0.0%0.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%1.8%4.5%0.0%—1.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%1.1%16.8%3.1%—1.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%29.3%1.7%—1.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.0%4.6%3.5%0.4%1.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%33.7%1.9%—0.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%18.2%1.4%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.2%0.4%—0.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast21%80.0°F3.1°F2026-09-16 14:00Pending
AIFS Single7%76.4°F4.1°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES5%76.8°F3.5°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
National Blend5%78.9°F2.2°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%75.9°F3.1°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%74.9°F3.4°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
ICON<1%73.3°F3.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 11 · 19:46 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗