KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

83%

33%

20%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.65u · ICON −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.0%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T04:21:33+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.0%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.4%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T05:51:46+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.4%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.4%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T07:22:11+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	91.4%	26.1%	18.5%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	43.4%	99.1%	91.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	43.4%	99.1%	91.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	43.4%	99.1%	91.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	43.4%	99.1%	91.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	43.4%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	43.4%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	43.4%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	43.4%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	40.7%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	40.7%	99.8%	88.4%	15.6%	8.8%
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	84.1%	11.8%	9.6%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	84.1%	11.8%	9.6%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	33.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	33.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	33.1%	99.8%	88.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	33.1%	99.8%	88.4%	20.5%	5.1%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	33.1%	99.6%	82.7%	20.5%	5.1%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	33.1%	99.6%	82.7%	20.5%	5.1%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	33.1%	99.6%	82.7%	20.5%	5.1%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	33.1%	99.6%	82.7%	20.5%	5.1%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	33.1%	99.6%	82.7%	20.5%	5.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	70.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	64.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗