KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

83%

33%

20%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.65u · ICON −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	98.6%	—	68.8%	53.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	7.5%	0.5%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	83.8%	40.3%	—	78.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	81.6%	90.7%	—	65.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	93.7%	73.6%	—	56.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	89.6%	89.6%	—	60.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	79.9%	—	55.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	29.6%	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	99.8%	91.0%	—	70.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	75.0%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	60.0%	55.5%	—	36.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	66.5%	29.2%	—	—	26.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	36.6%	32.1%	67.0%	—	17.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	28.2%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	15.7%	34.0%	67.0%	—	14.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	14.4%	28.8%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	11.9%	37.1%	53.3%	4.0%	11.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	11.8%	56.7%	50.0%	—	9.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	11.6%	54.6%	59.2%	2.4%	6.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	9.2%	16.7%	51.2%	—	5.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	8.5%	3.7%	52.5%	—	8.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.2%	8.2%	55.1%	—	4.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.3%	7.4%	36.8%	0.6%	2.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.1%	2.7%	20.1%	—	4.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%	8.9%	0.4%	3.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.2%	1.3%	5.1%	—	1.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	0.2%	7.1%	1.0%	4.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	4.1%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	70.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	64.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗