KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

89%

76%

64%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.7¢Risks 78.70u

HRESNO 21.3¢Risks 21.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.30u · HRES −21.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	56.5%	79.9%	76.3%	70.5%	22.2%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	56.5%	79.9%	76.3%	70.5%	22.2%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	56.5%	79.9%	76.3%	70.5%	22.2%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	76.3%	70.5%	22.2%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	92.4%	82.3%	76.2%	70.4%	22.3%
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	76.2%	70.4%	22.3%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	76.2%	70.4%	22.3%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	76.2%	70.4%	—
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	83.8%	70.4%	—
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	83.8%	70.4%	—
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	83.8%	70.4%	—
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	91.3%	79.9%	83.8%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	91.3%	79.9%	83.8%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	91.3%	79.9%	83.8%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	91.3%	79.9%	83.8%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	91.3%	79.9%	83.8%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	91.3%	80.6%	88.4%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	91.3%	80.6%	88.4%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	91.3%	80.6%	88.4%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	94.2%	80.6%	88.4%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	94.2%	80.6%	88.4%	55.2%	80.4%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	59.6%	93.3%	90.3%	70.1%	41.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	59.6%	93.3%	90.3%	70.1%	41.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	59.6%	93.3%	90.3%	70.1%	41.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	59.6%	93.3%	90.3%	70.1%	41.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	59.6%	93.3%	90.3%	70.1%	41.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	54.8%	93.3%	90.3%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	54.8%	93.3%	90.3%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	54.8%	93.3%	90.3%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	54.8%	93.3%	90.3%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	54.8%	93.3%	90.3%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	54.8%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	54.8%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	54.8%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	75.2%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	75.2%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	75.2%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	75.2%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	75.2%	87.0%	81.5%	36.0%	28.4%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	84.5%	19.1%	28.4%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	84.5%	19.1%	28.4%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	93.6%	19.1%	28.4%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	93.6%	19.1%	28.4%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	46.0%	85.1%	93.6%	19.1%	28.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	69.4%	85.1%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	69.4%	85.1%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	69.4%	85.1%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	69.4%	85.1%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	69.4%	88.8%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	69.4%	88.8%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	69.4%	88.8%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	69.4%	88.8%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	75.8%	88.8%	93.6%	63.9%	90.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	75.8%	88.8%	93.6%	63.8%	90.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	76.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	73.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	72.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.7°F	7.9°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗