KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

89%

76%

64%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.7¢Risks 78.70u

HRESNO 21.3¢Risks 21.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.30u · HRES −21.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	95.5%	—	50.0%	34.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	2.6%	0.1%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	67.7%	21.9%	—	60.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	63.6%	78.0%	—	43.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	83.1%	52.3%	—	33.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	74.5%	74.5%	—	36.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	58.3%	—	30.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	98.6%	75.2%	—	45.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	50.0%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	33.0%	28.9%	—	14.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	38.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	14.2%	11.6%	38.5%	—	4.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	9.2%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	3.8%	11.8%	36.9%	—	3.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	3.1%	8.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.3%	12.5%	23.0%	0.5%	2.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.1%	24.9%	19.8%	—	1.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.9%	22.4%	26.0%	0.2%	0.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.3%	3.1%	19.1%	—	0.6%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	0.3%	19.1%	—	0.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	0.9%	20.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.7%	8.9%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	3.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	76.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	73.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	72.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.7°F	7.9°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗